Why Ripple’s XRP Price Risks Falling Lower

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Ripple’s native token, XRP, hovered around $0.38 despite the mid-March rally that saw the crypto market capitalization surge by 28%. Its poor price performance may intensify as crypto whales appear to have entered a selling spree.   

Ripple Whales Are Selling  

XRP holders missed out on the upside of the recent crypto rally, as prices hovered between $0.35 and $0.38 for the last 30 days. On-chain metrics now project a bearish outlook for the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Data from blockchain forensics firm Santiment reveals that XRP whales have conspicuously entered a sell-off frenzy, despite the recent bull rally that pushed the crypto market capitalization above $1.1 trillion. 

Crypto whales with balances of 10 million to 100 million XRP have offloaded 30 billion XRP worth about $11 million. Between March 9 and March 20, this cluster of whales depleted their holdings from 4.42 billion to 4.1 billion XRP tokens. 

Ripple (XRP) Whales activity, March 2023. Source: Santiment 

A closer look shows that crypto investors holding between 10 million to 100 million XRP have grown increasingly savvy in recent months. Since the FTX crash contagion in November 2022, they have often sold just before prices drop and accumulated again near local bottoms. 

If this trend continues, the current sell-off poses a bearish outlook for XRP price in the coming weeks. 

Another factor emphasizing a bearish outlook for XRP is the declining developer activity on the Ripple-backed network. As of March 20, developer activity has dropped by more than 60% since mid-February. 

Ripple (XRP) Development Activity, March 2023.
Ripple (XRP) Development Activity, March 2023. Source: Santiment

Development activity indicates how much attention and resources are devoted to improving the XRP Ledger, adding new features, and expanding its capabilities. A persistent decline poses a negative signal as investors may interpret it as a lack of community interest and technical support, which can further weaken the long-term price prospects of XRP.

XRP Price Prediction: When Bottom? 

The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) metric provides relevant data for upcoming XRP price actions. Most holders who bought XRP in the last 30 days are sitting on nearly 5% unrealized losses. A critical look at recent bear market patterns shows that XRP holders have a tolerance of 10% losses before they stop selling.  

This means that XRP could decline toward $0.33 in the coming weeks. And if this stop does not hold, the sell-off may continue until XRP price slides by 25% toward $0.29. 

Ripple (XRP) MVRV, March 2023
Ripple (XRP) MVRV, March 2023. Source: Santiment 

If XRP can shake off the current bearish signals, its price could rise until most holders begin to book some gains at $0.42, around the 13% profit line. This may result in a shift in market sentiment that triggers a spike in buying pressure, consequently extending the rally toward $0.49.  


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